Economic Oscillations with Endogenous Population, Human Capital and Wealth
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26458/1521Keywords:
economic oscillations, propensity to have children, human capital, endogenous populationAbstract
This paper demonstrates oscillations in the economic growth model with endogenous population growth and physical and human capital accumulation proposed by Zhang (2014). This study generalizes Zhang’s model by treating all the time-independent parameters as time-dependent parameters. The model is a synthesis of the Solow growth model, Uzawa-Lucas two-sector model, and the Haavelmo population model and the Barro-Becker fertility choice model. The model studies the dynamic interdependence between population change, wealth accumulation, and human capital accumulation. We simulate the model to demonstrate existence of business cycles under different periodic shocks.References
Adsera, A. (2005) Vanishing Children: From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed Countries. American Economic Review 95, 189-93.
Alonso-Carrera, J. and Freire-Sere, M.J. (2004) Multiple Equilibria, Fiscal Policy and Human Capital Accumulation. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 28, 841-56.
Azariadis, C. (1993) Intertemporal Macroeconomics. Oxford: Blackwell.
Balestra, C. and Dottori, D. (2012) Aging Society, Health and the Environment. Journal of Population Economics 25, 1045-76.
Barro, R.J. and Becker, G.S. (1989) Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth. Econometrica 57, 481-501.
Barro, R.J. and X. Sala-i-Martin (1995) Economic Growth. New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc.
Becker, G. S. (1981) A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge, MA.: Harvard University Press.
Blackburn, K. and Cipriani, G.P. (2005) A Model of Longevity, Fertility and Growth. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 26, 187-204.
Bosi, S. and Seegmuller, T. (2012) Mortality Differential and Growth: What Do We Learn from the Barro-Becker Model? Mathematical Population Studies 19, 27-50.
Boucekkine, R., de la Croix, D. and Licandro, O. (2002) Vintage Human Capital. Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth. Journal of Economic Growth 104, 340-75.
Burmeister, E. and Dobell, A.R. (1970) Mathematical Theories of Economic Growth. London: Collier Macmillan Publishers.
Chakraborty, B. and Gupta, M.R. (2009) Human Capital, Inequality, Endogenous Growth and Education Subsidy: A Theoretical Analysis. Research in Economics 63, 77-90.
Chatterjee, B. S. and Ravikumar, B. (1992) A Neoclassical Model of Seasonal Fluctuations. Journal of Monetary Economics 29 (1), 59–86.
Chu, A.C., Cozzi, G. and Liao, C.H. (2013) Endogenous Fertility and Human Capital in a Schumpeterian Growth Model. Journal of Population Economics 26, 181-202.
De Hek, P.A. (2005) On Taxation in a Two-Sector Endogenous Growth Model with Endogenous Labor Supply. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 30, 655-85.
De la Croix, D. and Licandro, O. (1999) Life Expectancy and Endogenous Growth. Economics Letters 65, 255-63.
Doepke, M. (2004) Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth. Journal of Economic Growth 9, 347-83.
Fanti, L. and Gori, L. (2011) Public Health Spending, Old-Age Productivity and Economic Growth: Chaotic Cycles under Perfect Foresight. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 78, 137-51.
Gabaix, X. (2011) The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations. Econometrica 79, 733-72.
Galor, O. (2005) From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory, in Handbook of Economic Growth, edited by Aghion, P. and Durlauf, S.N. Amsterdam: North Holland.
Galor, O. and Weil, D.N. (1996) The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth. American Economic Review 86, 374-87.
Giovanni, J. Di., Levchenko, A., and Mejean, I. (2014) Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations. Econometrica 82 (4), 1303-40.
Haavelmo, T. (1954) A Study in the Theory of Economic Evolution. North-Holland: Amsterdam.
Hazan, M. and Zoabi, H. (2006) Does Longevity Cause Growth? A Theoretical Critique. Journal of Economic Growth 11, 363-76.
Hock, H. and Weil, D.N. (2012) On the Dynamics of the Age Structure, Dependency, and Consumption. Journal of Population Economics 25, 1019-43.
Jones, L.E., Manuelli, R.E., and Rossi, P.E. (1993) Optimal Taxation in Models of Endogenous Growth. Journal of Political Economy 101, 485-517.
Lagerlof, N.P. (2003) From Malthus to Modern Growth: The Three Regimes Revisited. International Review of Economics 44, 755-77.
Lancia, F. and Prarolo, G. (2012) A Politico-Economic Model of Aging, Technology Adoption and Growth. Journal of Population Economics 25, 989-1018.
Lucas, R.E. (1977) Understanding Business Cycles. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 5, 7-29.
Lucas, R.E. (1988) On the Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics 22, 3-42.
Ludwig, A. and Vogel, E. (2009) Mortality, Fertility, Education and Capital Accumulation in a Simple OLG Economy. Journal of Population Economics 23, 703-35.
Mino, K. (1996) Analysis of a Two-Sector Model of Endogenous Growth with Capital Income Taxation. International Economic Review 37, 227-51.
Robinson, J.A. and Srinivasan, T.N. (1997) Long-term Consequence of Population Growth: Technological Change, Natural Resources, and the Environment, in Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edited by Rozenzweig, M.R. and Stark, O. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Sano, K. and Tomoda, Y. (2010) Optimal Public Education Policy in a Two Sector Model. Economic Modelling 27, 991-95.
Schultz, P.T. (1993) Mortality Decline in the Low-Income World: Causes and Consequences. American Economic Review 83, 337-42.
Schultz, P.T. (1998) Health and Schooling Investments in Africa. The Journal of Economic Perspectives 13, 67-88.
Solow, R. (1956) A Contribution to the Theory of Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics 70, 65-94.
Stella, A. (2015) Firm Dynamics and the Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (forthcoming). Lucas, R.E. (1988) On the Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics 22, 3-42.
Stokey, N.L. and Rebelo, S. (1995) Growth Effects of Flat-Rate Taxes. Journal of Political Economy 103, 519-50.
Tournemaine, F. and Luangaram, P. (2012) R&D, Human Capital, Fertility, and Growth. Journal of Population Economics 25, 923-53.
Uzawa, H. (1965) Optimal Technical Change in an Aggregative Model of Economic Growth. International Economic Review 6, 18-31.
Wang, P., Yip, C.K. and Scotese, C.A. (1994) Fertility Choice and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence. Review of Economics and Statistics 71, 255-66.
Yip, C. and Zhang, J. (1997) A Simple Endogenous Growth Model with Endogenous Fertility: Indeterminacy and Uniqueness. Journal of Population Economics 10, 97-100.
Zhang, W.B. (1993) Woman’s Labor Participation and Economic Growth – Creativity, Knowledge Utilization and Family Preference. Economics Letters 42, 105-110.
Zhang, W.B. (1991) Synergetic Economics. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg.
Zhang, W.B. (2005) Differential Equations, Bifurcations, and Chaos in Economics. Singapore: World Scientific.
Zhang, W.B. (2006) Discrete Dynamical Systems, Bifurcations and Chaos in Economics. Elsevier: Amsterdam.
Zhang, W.B. (2014) Endogenous Population with Human and Physical Capital Accumulation. International Review of Economics 61(3), 231-52.